{ "title": "WC26 Oracle Extra Tour bankroll simulations", "methodology": { "scope": "Isolated simulation of the eight Extra Tour match-days", "match_ids": [ "qf-fra-mar", "qf-esp-bel", "qf-nor-eng", "qf-arg-sui", "sf-fra-esp", "sf-eng-arg", "bronze-fra-eng", "final-esp-arg" ], "participants": [ "VX-06", "VX-02", "VX-10", "VX-09", "VX-05", "VX-11", "VX-04", "VX-07", "VX-03", "VX-01", "VX-08" ], "starting_bankroll": 1000.0, "all_seven_routes": { "policy": "$100 + 25% of positive P/L per match-day", "routes_per_match": 7, "allocation": "Split evenly into whole-dollar route stakes; remainder stays in the bank." }, "route_weighted_replay": { "policy": "$60 on the top route, $40 on the second route, then 10% of positive P/L on the third route", "ranking_basis": "Completed Extra Tour direct-market net P/L for each predictor", "minimum_profit_route_stake": 1.0 } }, "all_seven_routes": [ { "model": "VX-06", "final_bankroll": 1224.64, "profit": 224.64, "profit_label": "+$224.64", "total_staked": 1043.0, "total_returned": 1267.64, "drawdown": 13.14, "drawdown_context": { "peak": 1326.33, "trough": 1152.06, "loss": 174.27, "percent": 13.14, "peak_match": "Argentina vs Switzerland", "trough_match": "France vs England", "peak_sequence": 4, "trough_sequence": 7 }, "matches_bet": 8, "match_total": 8, "wagers": 56, "record": "30 wins \u00b7 26 losses", "match_ledger": [ { "sequence": 1, "match": "France vs Morocco", "date": "2026-07-09", "selections": 7, "record": "5 wins \u00b7 2 losses", "stake": 98.0, "returned": 130.21, "net": 32.21, "before": 1000.0, "after": 1032.21, "picks": [ "Tournament outcome: France", "90-minute result: France", "90-minute goals: under 2.5", "Half-time exact score: 0-0", "90-minute exact score: 1-0", "First-half corners: under 4.5", "90-minute corners: under 9.5" ] }, { "sequence": 2, "match": "Spain vs Belgium", "date": "2026-07-10", "selections": 7, "record": "3 wins \u00b7 4 losses", "stake": 105.0, "returned": 73.95, "net": -31.05, "before": 1032.21, "after": 1001.16, "picks": [ "Tournament outcome: Spain", "90-minute result: Spain", "90-minute goals: under 2.5", "Half-time exact score: 0-0", "90-minute exact score: 1-0", "First-half corners: under 4", "90-minute corners: over 9" ] }, { "sequence": 3, "match": "Norway vs England", "date": "2026-07-11", "selections": 7, "record": "5 wins \u00b7 2 losses", "stake": 98.0, "returned": 230.72, "net": 132.72, "before": 1001.16, "after": 1133.88, "picks": [ "Tournament outcome: England", "90-minute result: Draw", "90-minute goals: under 2.5", "Half-time exact score: 0-0", "90-minute exact score: 1-1", "First-half corners: under 4.5", "90-minute corners: over 9.5" ] }, { "sequence": 4, "match": "Argentina vs Switzerland", "date": "2026-07-12", "selections": 7, "record": "5 wins \u00b7 2 losses", "stake": 133.0, "returned": 325.45, "net": 192.45, "before": 1133.88, "after": 1326.33, "picks": [ "Tournament outcome: Argentina", "90-minute result: Draw", "90-minute goals: under 2.5", "Half-time exact score: 0-0", "90-minute exact score: 1-1", "First-half corners: under 4", "90-minute corners: over 9" ] }, { "sequence": 5, "match": "France vs Spain", "date": "2026-07-14", "selections": 7, "record": "1 wins \u00b7 6 losses", "stake": 175.0, "returned": 47.75, "net": -127.25, "before": 1326.33, "after": 1199.08, "picks": [ "Tournament outcome: France", "90-minute result: Draw", "90-minute goals: under 2.5", "Half-time exact score: 0-0", "90-minute exact score: 1-1", "First-half corners: over 4.5", "90-minute corners: over 9.5" ] }, { "sequence": 6, "match": "England vs Argentina", "date": "2026-07-15", "selections": 7, "record": "4 wins \u00b7 3 losses", "stake": 147.0, "returned": 180.81, "net": 33.81, "before": 1199.08, "after": 1232.89, "picks": [ "Tournament outcome: Argentina", "90-minute result: Draw", "90-minute goals: under 2.5", "Half-time exact score: 0-0", "90-minute exact score: 1-1", "First-half corners: under 4", "90-minute corners: under 9" ] }, { "sequence": 7, "match": "France vs England", "date": "2026-07-18", "selections": 7, "record": "2 wins \u00b7 5 losses", "stake": 154.0, "returned": 73.17, "net": -80.83, "before": 1232.89, "after": 1152.06, "picks": [ "Tournament outcome: France", "90-minute result: France", "90-minute goals: over 2.5", "Half-time exact score: 1-0", "90-minute exact score: 2-1", "First-half corners: over 4", "90-minute corners: over 8.5" ] }, { "sequence": 8, "match": "Spain vs Argentina", "date": "2026-07-19", "selections": 7, "record": "5 wins \u00b7 2 losses", "stake": 133.0, "returned": 205.58, "net": 72.58, "before": 1152.06, "after": 1224.64, "picks": [ "Tournament outcome: Spain", "90-minute result: Draw", "90-minute goals: under 2.5", "Half-time exact score: 0-0", "90-minute exact score: 1-1", "First-half corners: over 3.5", "90-minute corners: over 8.5" ] } ], "coverage": [ { "label": "Tournament outcome", "selections": 8, "matches_bet": 8, "no_bets": 0, "reason": "Selection available on all 19 matches." }, { "label": "90-minute result", "selections": 8, "matches_bet": 8, "no_bets": 0, "reason": "Selection available on all 19 matches." }, { "label": "90-minute goals", "selections": 8, "matches_bet": 8, "no_bets": 0, "reason": "Selection available on all 19 matches." }, { "label": "Half-time exact score", "selections": 8, "matches_bet": 8, "no_bets": 0, "reason": "Selection available on all 19 matches." }, { "label": "90-minute exact score", "selections": 8, "matches_bet": 8, "no_bets": 0, "reason": "Selection available on all 19 matches." }, { "label": "First-half corners", "selections": 8, "matches_bet": 8, "no_bets": 0, "reason": "Selection available on all 19 matches." }, { "label": "90-minute corners", "selections": 8, "matches_bet": 8, "no_bets": 0, "reason": "Selection available on all 19 matches." } ], "allocation_rows": [ { "label": "Tournament outcome", "bets": 8, "standalone_staked": 920.59, "standalone_profit": 59.42, "portfolio_staked": 149.0, "portfolio_profit": 8.87 }, { "label": "90-minute result", "bets": 8, "standalone_staked": 1542.72, "standalone_profit": 499.36, "portfolio_staked": 149.0, "portfolio_profit": 71.94 }, { "label": "90-minute goals", "bets": 8, "standalone_staked": 1039.75, "standalone_profit": 276.49, "portfolio_staked": 149.0, "portfolio_profit": 51.39 }, { "label": "Half-time exact score", "bets": 8, "standalone_staked": 851.56, "standalone_profit": -71.56, "portfolio_staked": 149.0, "portfolio_profit": -9.55 }, { "label": "90-minute exact score", "bets": 8, "standalone_staked": 2183.03, "standalone_profit": 373.22, "portfolio_staked": 149.0, "portfolio_profit": 117.5 }, { "label": "First-half corners", "bets": 8, "standalone_staked": 1409.74, "standalone_profit": 374.89, "portfolio_staked": 149.0, "portfolio_profit": 53.34 }, { "label": "90-minute corners", "bets": 8, "standalone_staked": 800.0, "standalone_profit": -399.0, "portfolio_staked": 149.0, "portfolio_profit": -68.85 } ], "largest_diagnostic": { "label": "90-minute result", "bets": 8, "standalone_staked": 1542.72, "standalone_profit": 499.36, "portfolio_staked": 149.0, "portfolio_profit": 71.94 }, "diagnostic_accounts": 7, "diagnostic_starting_bankroll": 7000.0, "diagnostic_staked": 8747.39, "diagnostic_profit": 1112.82, "selections_without_bet": 0, "rank": 1 }, { "model": "VX-02", "final_bankroll": 1145.43, "profit": 145.43, "profit_label": "+$145.43", "total_staked": 1050.0, "total_returned": 1195.43, "drawdown": 15.49, "drawdown_context": { "peak": 1278.56, "trough": 1080.49, "loss": 198.07, "percent": 15.49, "peak_match": "Norway vs England", "trough_match": "France vs England", "peak_sequence": 3, "trough_sequence": 7 }, "matches_bet": 8, "match_total": 8, "wagers": 56, "record": "30 wins \u00b7 26 losses", "match_ledger": [ { "sequence": 1, "match": "France vs Morocco", "date": "2026-07-09", "selections": 7, "record": "6 wins \u00b7 1 losses", "stake": 98.0, "returned": 221.21, "net": 123.21, "before": 1000.0, "after": 1123.21, "picks": [ "Tournament outcome: France", "90-minute result: France", "90-minute goals: under 2.5", "Half-time exact score: 0-0", "90-minute exact score: 2-0", "First-half corners: under 4.5", "90-minute corners: under 9.5" ] }, { "sequence": 2, "match": "Spain vs Belgium", "date": "2026-07-10", "selections": 7, "record": "3 wins \u00b7 4 losses", "stake": 126.0, "returned": 88.74, "net": -37.26, "before": 1123.21, "after": 1085.95, "picks": [ "Tournament outcome: Spain", "90-minute result: Spain", "90-minute goals: under 2.5", "Half-time exact score: 1-0", "90-minute exact score: 2-0", "First-half corners: under 4", "90-minute corners: over 9" ] }, { "sequence": 3, "match": "Norway vs England", "date": "2026-07-11", "selections": 7, "record": "6 wins \u00b7 1 losses", "stake": 119.0, "returned": 311.61, "net": 192.61, "before": 1085.95, "after": 1278.56, "picks": [ "Tournament outcome: England", "90-minute result: Draw", "90-minute goals: under 2.5", "Half-time exact score: 0-0", "90-minute exact score: 1-1", "First-half corners: under 4.5", "90-minute corners: under 9.5" ] }, { "sequence": 4, "match": "Argentina vs Switzerland", "date": "2026-07-12", "selections": 7, "record": "3 wins \u00b7 4 losses", "stake": 168.0, "returned": 120.69, "net": -47.31, "before": 1278.56, "after": 1231.25, "picks": [ "Tournament outcome: Argentina", "90-minute result: Argentina", "90-minute goals: under 2.5", "Half-time exact score: 0-0", "90-minute exact score: 1-0", "First-half corners: under 4", "90-minute corners: over 9" ] }, { "sequence": 5, "match": "France vs Spain", "date": "2026-07-14", "selections": 7, "record": "2 wins \u00b7 5 losses", "stake": 154.0, "returned": 80.08, "net": -73.92, "before": 1231.25, "after": 1157.33, "picks": [ "Tournament outcome: France", "90-minute result: Draw", "90-minute goals: under 2.5", "Half-time exact score: 0-0", "90-minute exact score: 1-1", "First-half corners: under 4.5", "90-minute corners: over 9.5" ] }, { "sequence": 6, "match": "England vs Argentina", "date": "2026-07-15", "selections": 7, "record": "3 wins \u00b7 4 losses", "stake": 133.0, "returned": 125.97, "net": -7.03, "before": 1157.33, "after": 1150.3, "picks": [ "Tournament outcome: Argentina", "90-minute result: Draw", "90-minute goals: under 2.5", "Half-time exact score: 0-0", "90-minute exact score: 1-1", "First-half corners: under 4", "90-minute corners: over 9" ] }, { "sequence": 7, "match": "France vs England", "date": "2026-07-18", "selections": 7, "record": "2 wins \u00b7 5 losses", "stake": 133.0, "returned": 63.19, "net": -69.81, "before": 1150.3, "after": 1080.49, "picks": [ "Tournament outcome: France", "90-minute result: France", "90-minute goals: over 2.5", "Half-time exact score: 2-1", "90-minute exact score: 3-2", "First-half corners: over 4", "90-minute corners: over 8.5" ] }, { "sequence": 8, "match": "Spain vs Argentina", "date": "2026-07-19", "selections": 7, "record": "5 wins \u00b7 2 losses", "stake": 119.0, "returned": 183.94, "net": 64.94, "before": 1080.49, "after": 1145.43, "picks": [ "Tournament outcome: Spain", "90-minute result: Draw", "90-minute goals: under 2.5", "Half-time exact score: 0-0", "90-minute exact score: 1-1", "First-half corners: over 3.5", "90-minute corners: over 8.5" ] } ], "coverage": [ { "label": "Tournament outcome", "selections": 8, "matches_bet": 8, "no_bets": 0, "reason": "Selection available on all 19 matches." }, { "label": "90-minute result", "selections": 8, "matches_bet": 8, "no_bets": 0, "reason": "Selection available on all 19 matches." }, { "label": "90-minute goals", "selections": 8, "matches_bet": 8, "no_bets": 0, "reason": "Selection available on all 19 matches." }, { "label": "Half-time exact score", "selections": 8, "matches_bet": 8, "no_bets": 0, "reason": "Selection available on all 19 matches." }, { "label": "90-minute exact score", "selections": 8, "matches_bet": 8, "no_bets": 0, "reason": "Selection available on all 19 matches." }, { "label": "First-half corners", "selections": 8, "matches_bet": 8, "no_bets": 0, "reason": "Selection available on all 19 matches." }, { "label": "90-minute corners", "selections": 8, "matches_bet": 8, "no_bets": 0, "reason": "Selection available on all 19 matches." } ], "allocation_rows": [ { "label": "Tournament outcome", "bets": 8, "standalone_staked": 920.59, "standalone_profit": 59.42, "portfolio_staked": 150.0, "portfolio_profit": 15.31 }, { "label": "90-minute result", "bets": 8, "standalone_staked": 1048.03, "standalone_profit": 61.43, "portfolio_staked": 150.0, "portfolio_profit": 12.26 }, { "label": "90-minute goals", "bets": 8, "standalone_staked": 1039.75, "standalone_profit": 276.49, "portfolio_staked": 150.0, "portfolio_profit": 52.09 }, { "label": "Half-time exact score", "bets": 8, "standalone_staked": 851.56, "standalone_profit": -71.56, "portfolio_staked": 150.0, "portfolio_profit": -20.65 }, { "label": "90-minute exact score", "bets": 8, "standalone_staked": 1942.1, "standalone_profit": 43.83, "portfolio_staked": 150.0, "portfolio_profit": 68.5 }, { "label": "First-half corners", "bets": 8, "standalone_staked": 1776.98, "standalone_profit": 821.74, "portfolio_staked": 150.0, "portfolio_profit": 101.97 }, { "label": "90-minute corners", "bets": 8, "standalone_staked": 800.0, "standalone_profit": -412.0, "portfolio_staked": 150.0, "portfolio_profit": -84.04 } ], "largest_diagnostic": { "label": "First-half corners", "bets": 8, "standalone_staked": 1776.98, "standalone_profit": 821.74, "portfolio_staked": 150.0, "portfolio_profit": 101.97 }, "diagnostic_accounts": 7, "diagnostic_starting_bankroll": 7000.0, "diagnostic_staked": 8379.01, "diagnostic_profit": 779.35, "selections_without_bet": 0, "rank": 2 }, { "model": "VX-10", "final_bankroll": 1066.14, "profit": 66.14, "profit_label": "+$66.14", "total_staked": 980.0, "total_returned": 1046.14, "drawdown": 17.86, "drawdown_context": { "peak": 1233.77, "trough": 1013.36, "loss": 220.41, "percent": 17.86, "peak_match": "Norway vs England", "trough_match": "France vs England", "peak_sequence": 3, "trough_sequence": 7 }, "matches_bet": 8, "match_total": 8, "wagers": 56, "record": "28 wins \u00b7 28 losses", "match_ledger": [ { "sequence": 1, "match": "France vs Morocco", "date": "2026-07-09", "selections": 7, "record": "6 wins \u00b7 1 losses", "stake": 98.0, "returned": 224.29, "net": 126.29, "before": 1000.0, "after": 1126.29, "picks": [ "Tournament outcome: France", "90-minute result: France", "90-minute goals: under 2.5", "Half-time exact score: 0-0", "90-minute exact score: 2-0", "First-half corners: over 4.5", "90-minute corners: over 9.5" ] }, { "sequence": 2, "match": "Spain vs Belgium", "date": "2026-07-10", "selections": 7, "record": "2 wins \u00b7 5 losses", "stake": 126.0, "returned": 52.2, "net": -73.8, "before": 1126.29, "after": 1052.49, "picks": [ "Tournament outcome: Spain", "90-minute result: Spain", "90-minute goals: under 2.5", "Half-time exact score: 0-0", "90-minute exact score: 2-0", "First-half corners: over 4", "90-minute corners: over 9" ] }, { "sequence": 3, "match": "Norway vs England", "date": "2026-07-11", "selections": 7, "record": "6 wins \u00b7 1 losses", "stake": 112.0, "returned": 293.28, "net": 181.28, "before": 1052.49, "after": 1233.77, "picks": [ "Tournament outcome: England", "90-minute result: Draw", "90-minute goals: under 2.5", "Half-time exact score: 0-0", "90-minute exact score: 1-1", "First-half corners: under 4.5", "90-minute corners: under 9.5" ] }, { "sequence": 4, "match": "Argentina vs Switzerland", "date": "2026-07-12", "selections": 7, "record": "3 wins \u00b7 4 losses", "stake": 154.0, "returned": 110.63, "net": -43.37, "before": 1233.77, "after": 1190.4, "picks": [ "Tournament outcome: Argentina", "90-minute result: Argentina", "90-minute goals: under 2.5", "Half-time exact score: 0-0", "90-minute exact score: 1-0", "First-half corners: under 4", "90-minute corners: over 9" ] }, { "sequence": 5, "match": "France vs Spain", "date": "2026-07-14", "selections": 7, "record": "3 wins \u00b7 4 losses", "stake": 147.0, "returned": 114.24, "net": -32.76, "before": 1190.4, "after": 1157.64, "picks": [ "Tournament outcome: France", "90-minute result: Draw", "90-minute goals: under 2.5", "Half-time exact score: 0-0", "90-minute exact score: 1-1", "First-half corners: under 4.5", "90-minute corners: under 9.5" ] }, { "sequence": 6, "match": "England vs Argentina", "date": "2026-07-15", "selections": 7, "record": "1 wins \u00b7 6 losses", "stake": 133.0, "returned": 47.5, "net": -85.5, "before": 1157.64, "after": 1072.14, "picks": [ "Tournament outcome: England", "90-minute result: Draw", "90-minute goals: under 2.5", "Half-time exact score: 0-0", "90-minute exact score: 1-1", "First-half corners: over 4", "90-minute corners: over 9" ] }, { "sequence": 7, "match": "France vs England", "date": "2026-07-18", "selections": 7, "record": "2 wins \u00b7 5 losses", "stake": 112.0, "returned": 53.22, "net": -58.78, "before": 1072.14, "after": 1013.36, "picks": [ "Tournament outcome: France", "90-minute result: France", "90-minute goals: over 2.5", "Half-time exact score: 1-0", "90-minute exact score: 3-2", "First-half corners: over 4", "90-minute corners: over 8.5" ] }, { "sequence": 8, "match": "Spain vs Argentina", "date": "2026-07-19", "selections": 7, "record": "5 wins \u00b7 2 losses", "stake": 98.0, "returned": 150.78, "net": 52.78, "before": 1013.36, "after": 1066.14, "picks": [ "Tournament outcome: Spain", "90-minute result: Draw", "90-minute goals: under 2.5", "Half-time exact score: 0-0", "90-minute exact score: 1-1", "First-half corners: under 3.5", "90-minute corners: under 8.5" ] } ], "coverage": [ { "label": "Tournament outcome", "selections": 8, "matches_bet": 8, "no_bets": 0, "reason": "Selection available on all 19 matches." }, { "label": "90-minute result", "selections": 8, "matches_bet": 8, "no_bets": 0, "reason": "Selection available on all 19 matches." }, { "label": "90-minute goals", "selections": 8, "matches_bet": 8, "no_bets": 0, "reason": "Selection available on all 19 matches." }, { "label": "Half-time exact score", "selections": 8, "matches_bet": 8, "no_bets": 0, "reason": "Selection available on all 19 matches." }, { "label": "90-minute exact score", "selections": 8, "matches_bet": 8, "no_bets": 0, "reason": "Selection available on all 19 matches." }, { "label": "First-half corners", "selections": 8, "matches_bet": 8, "no_bets": 0, "reason": "Selection available on all 19 matches." }, { "label": "90-minute corners", "selections": 8, "matches_bet": 8, "no_bets": 0, "reason": "Selection available on all 19 matches." } ], "allocation_rows": [ { "label": "Tournament outcome", "bets": 8, "standalone_staked": 888.81, "standalone_profit": -125.84, "portfolio_staked": 140.0, "portfolio_profit": -23.63 }, { "label": "90-minute result", "bets": 8, "standalone_staked": 1048.03, "standalone_profit": 61.43, "portfolio_staked": 140.0, "portfolio_profit": 9.81 }, { "label": "90-minute goals", "bets": 8, "standalone_staked": 1039.75, "standalone_profit": 276.49, "portfolio_staked": 140.0, "portfolio_profit": 45.37 }, { "label": "Half-time exact score", "bets": 8, "standalone_staked": 851.56, "standalone_profit": -71.56, "portfolio_staked": 140.0, "portfolio_profit": -18.3 }, { "label": "90-minute exact score", "bets": 8, "standalone_staked": 1942.1, "standalone_profit": 43.83, "portfolio_staked": 140.0, "portfolio_profit": 71.0 }, { "label": "First-half corners", "bets": 8, "standalone_staked": 818.94, "standalone_profit": 131.3, "portfolio_staked": 140.0, "portfolio_profit": 26.49 }, { "label": "90-minute corners", "bets": 8, "standalone_staked": 846.25, "standalone_profit": -281.25, "portfolio_staked": 140.0, "portfolio_profit": -44.6 } ], "largest_diagnostic": { "label": "90-minute goals", "bets": 8, "standalone_staked": 1039.75, "standalone_profit": 276.49, "portfolio_staked": 140.0, 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